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Tuesday, November 20, 2012

PCLN

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Thursday, November 15, 2012

FCX vs. SCCO

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From a fundamental persepective, Expansion costs and higher energy prices have led to a lower cash flow for FCX.  On 7/30 they reported a neg cash flow of about 445M. On the balance sheet, that is the lowest level in 2 years they have made from operations.  Southern Copper has a profit margin of 29% and operating margin of 53%, Freeport's profit margin is 17% and operating margin is 32%, making SCCO more likely to survive if copper prices should happen to depreciate any more than they have since 2011. Freeport also has its hand in the gold industry, so overall, if gold and copper prices fall, so will Freeport.
However, Freeports debt is sustainable and with a p/e ratio of 12.6, compared to Southern Coppers 15.2, prices are attractive in this area.  Both are extremely attractive when compared to other miners, the average p/e for the metals and mining industry is 25.3.

Overall, I like FCX at 41 for a longer term hold.  I like SCCO over today's (11/15) highs for a trade only. My personal opinion is to stay ALL CASH until the fiscal cliff is dealt with though.  Until that happens, all markets (metals, equities, bonds) will probably remain choppy for the most part.

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

GOLD -- $GOLD $AUY $GG $RGLD

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 Yamana is my favorite gold play right now.  Beautiful breakout today, MACD crossing and hist should be positive soon.  Had a nice consolidation period of about a month and now the moving averages and stock is moving higher.  Excellent volume to couple with this move, and this is a multi year breakout. 


Rangold is also looking decent.  Nice bull flag forming, but I'd like to see this one above the moving averages and break out of this channel before pulling the trigger.  MACD also looking like it should cross over soon. 


Goldcorp is a long time favorite of mine.  I've been watching the flag for about 2 weeks now, waiting for a long entry.  However, I did not like that gap today. I would have much prefered a gap down or a flat open and a fade up to the current price to intiate a long position.  Still on watch.


Royal Gold is probably my least favorite out of the gold plays.  A possible HnS could form if it cant take out the highs, and they also report earnings tomorrow.  If it breaks below the trendline, 80 (previous breakout) and 75 (200MA) would be good spots to take a look for an entry.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

$ACI $ANR $JRCC $WLT #COAL






What the hell is not to like about coal right now?  We've been long WLT November 35 calls from 1.65.  As stated, our first price target was 39, which got hit at the eod today. Moving average crossovers, MACD crossovers, RSI heading higher....Coal Stocks are heading HIGHER, and any dips should be bought....

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

$BIDU

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Notice MACD when 10ma crosses below 20ma...BIDU may go a little higher short term, but I think this is another shortable pop....

$AAPL

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Said last night that hammers and dojis usually lead to higher prices for Apple.  So far, the plan is working.  I still think it needs to get up and test the 10ma , MACD signal needs to cross.  On a positive note, the RSI is starting to show some life.  Once AAPL crosses and closes above the 10ma, then I'll establish a longer term swing position.  Until then my game plan is to scalp intraday via weeklies. 

$LULU

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Forming a cup and handle...set up might not be ready just yet.  Waiting on RSI and MACD to turn up.  Next move higher should take out 81.09, making this at least a 9 point gainer.  No position yet, but I have a very close eye on it...besides, who doesn't like yoga pants?